Supporting previous research, IDC analysts suggest the general PC market will see greater growth to developing nations, exploding from 201.2 million last year to nearly 323 million by 2016. Mature markets including the U.S. and Europe are expected to only post single-digit growth over the next five years, with vendors adding around 43 million desktop and portable PCs to last year's 152 million.
According to IDC, tablets proved a considerable deterrent last year, tempting PC stalwarts with on-the-go multimedia and entertainment options. Of course, the firm attributed the bulk of that attitude change to Apple's iPad. The Cupertino company sold 15.4 million units of the device during the holidays.
"Many consumers are holding off making PC purchases at the moment because tablet devices like Apple's iPad are proving to be a powerful distraction," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC Vice President of Clients and Displays. "However, end user surveys tell us that few people consider media tablets as replacements for their PCs, so later this year when there is a new Microsoft operating system, available in sleek new PC form factors, we believe consumer interest in PCs will begin to rebound."
Insiders believe Microsoft's Windows 8 will launch this October, falling in line with past OS debuts from the Redmond software giant. But that doesn't mean the company won't face some obstacles.
"The Wintel platform must evolve to accommodate user expectations of ubiquitous computing on a multitude of devices and physical settings," noted Jay Chou, senior research analyst, Worldwide PC Tracker, IDC. "Windows 8 and ultrabooks are a definitive step in the right direction to recapturing the relevance of the PC, but its promise of meshing a tablet experience in a PC body will likely entail a period of trial and error, thus the market will likely see modest growth in the near term."
IDC believes the upcoming OS will primarily benefit notebooks and ultrabooks, with the portable PC market in emerging markets exploding from 110 million in 2011 to almost 215 million in 2016. The same countries' overall desktop market, however, will meander upward from 91.2 million to just 108.2 million over the same period. Meanwhile, desktop PC shipments to developed markets are expected to shrink from 52.8 million to 48.8 million, with portable PCs picking up the slack and growing from 99.4 million to 146.6 million. Global PC shipments across all form factors are expected to top 518 million by 2016.
